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Minggu, 01 November 2020

US election 2020 live: Polls still show Joe Biden beating Donald Trump with two days left - NEWS.com.au

We are two days away from the election, and Donald Trump in particular is using every minute he possibly can to appeal to voters.

Today the President is travelling to five different states – Michigan, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. Joe Biden, meanwhile, is limiting himself to a couple of events in Philadelphia, which is the biggest city in Pennsylvania and key to his chances of winning the state.

As you would expect, there has been a flurry of polling in the last 24 hours or so. With all the usual caveats about polling accuracy, let’s look at the numbers in detail.

I mentioned the Des Moines Register poll from Iowa in yesterday’s coverage, but you might have missed it, and the result was eye-popping enough to bring up again. It showed Mr Trump beating Mr Biden 48 per cent to 41 – a massive swing was its previous survey, which had the race tied.

An outlier? Maybe. But we’re talking about a poll with a sterling reputation, and Iowa has been swinging back and forth a fair bit throughout the campaign.

Next up we have a poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal. It shows Mr Biden winning 54-42, which is in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico is a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.

The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covers four different states. These polls show Mr Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.

An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan has the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, shows him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin.

And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys have Mr Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Mr Trump winning Florida 50-48.

You might wonder, after 2016, how much stock we should even be placing in these polls. It’s a good question, and I’ll explore it below.

I’ll also show you two versions of the electoral map – one based on the current polling averages, and the other based on the assumption that the polls will prove to be as wrong this year as they were in 2016.

Read on for all the latest election news.

Live Updates

While we're talking about the polls, here are two more new ones to consider.

The latest WSJ/NBC News survey has Joe Biden ahead 52-42. The equivalent poll four years ago showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 per cent.

There's also a fresh Fox News poll. This one has Mr Biden up 52-44, but I'm more interested in diving in to the crosstabs.

This, in particular, struck me as significant.

It lines up with the sort of results we have been seeing on this question throughout the pandemic.

A large majority of Americans believe limiting the spread of the coronavirus should be a higher priority than restarting the economy.

And that is why I'm finding the President's rhetoric so baffling in these closing days. He is making an overwhelmingly unpopular position a central theme of his campaign, and gifting the popular position to his opponent.

Mr Trump is telling voters the US is "rounding the turn" and the virus is "going away", despite its record-breaking infection numbers (including more than 100,000 cases a couple of days ago).

He's saying governors should reopen their economies, even in the worst-hit states.

One of his core attacks on Mr Biden is a warning that the Democrat will impose coronavirus lockdowns again.

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The President is holding massive rallies with no social distancing and few face masks, and he's mocking his opponent for holding small events in accordance with local health guidelines.

He constantly complains about the news media's coverage of the pandemic, saying it's "all they talk about" and the coverage will stop the day after the election.

He tells his supporters that if they catch the virus, they'll get better, and "99.9 per cent" of people are fine anyway.

Mr Trump has been claiming that American healthcare workers are overstating the death toll to get more money.

A few weeks ago he warned Mr Biden "will listen to the scientists" if elected, and he meant it as an insult.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows recently said America was "not going to control the pandemic", and the administration was focused on getting a vaccine out there instead.

I mean, I could keep going here. At every turn, the President is spreading the message that the virus isn't as bad as his critics or the media say, and the economy should be everyone's top priority.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden has been allowed to tie himself to the relatively uncontroversial idea that containing the virus is important, and things like social distancing and masks matter.

Mr Trump's strategy here is … interesting. Which is a polite way of saying it doesn't seem to make much sense.

OK, I'm going to give you multiple versions of the electoral map here, based on the current polls.

Remember, the goal for each candidate is to reach 270 electoral votes. Win a state, and they get its entire haul.

The first map is taking the polling average in each state at face value. If the polls are completely accurate, this is what will happen.

It's a Biden landslide. But are the polls going to get everything right? No, of course not.

So, this second map shows what will happen if the polls at state level are as wrong this time as they were in 2016 (thanks to The New York Times for doing the actual number crunching here).

Say the polls in Pennsylvania, for example, are underestimating Donald Trump's share of the vote by 5 per cent, just like they did in 2016. What does the electoral map look like then?

There's actually not much difference. Mr Trump flips North Carolina and Maine's second congressional district. That's it.

However, I should note that this scenario leaves Joe Biden ahead by less than 1 per cent in both Florida and Georgia. Out of curiosity, let's give both of those states to Mr Trump.

He still loses.

Yes, the polls might be wrong again, and maybe by a significant margin. But it's not enough for them to be as far off the mark as they were in 2016. Mr Trump needs the error to be significantly worse this time.

There has been a flurry of polling in the last 24 hours or so. With all the usual caveats about polling accuracy, let’s look at the numbers in detail.

I mentioned the Des Moines Register poll from Iowa in yesterday’s coverage, but you might have missed it, and the result was eye-popping enough to bring up again. It showed Mr Trump beating Mr Biden 48 per cent to 41 – a massive swing was its previous survey, which had the race tied.

An outlier? Maybe. But we’re talking about a poll with a sterling reputation, and Iowa has been swinging back and forth a fair bit throughout the campaign.

Next up we have a poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal. It shows Mr Biden winning 54-42, which is in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico is a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.

The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covers four different states. These polls show Mr Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.

An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan has the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, shows him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin.

And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys have Mr Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Mr Trump winning Florida 50-48.

What do all these polls mean for the potential election result? We'll look at the electoral map in a moment.

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2020-11-01 13:58:51Z
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